The Papal Race Goes Digital: Faith Meets Forecasts in a Global Betting Frenzy

As cardinals gather beneath Michelangelo’s frescoes in the sacred confines of the Sistine Chapel to select the next successor to Saint Peter, a different kind of “conclave” is taking place across the internet—this one fueled by data, odds, and speculation rather than incense and prayer. The world’s fixation on who will become the next Pope has extended beyond Vatican-watchers and theologians to a global network of bettors using platforms like Polymarket to try and predict the outcome.

According to the latest data, the total amount wagered on Polymarket has exceeded $6 million, making the papal election the most popular betting event on the platform. The frontrunner in these online predictions is currently Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, with a leading probability of 37%, while Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle follows closely with 32%. Often called a “little Francis,” Tagle is admired for his humility and his progressive, inclusive approach that mirrors the current pontiff’s style.

Trailing behind are other prominent figures such as Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, who holds a 10% chance according to estimates reported by Fortune, and African Cardinal Peter Turkson, a significant figure among African clergy. Additional contenders include Jean-Marc Aveline, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and the traditionalist Robert Sarah, though each registers with lower probability scores.

The online bets don’t stop with names. Users are also wagering on the duration of the conclave—specifically how many days it will take before white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel. Other speculative categories include the age of the new pontiff and his continent of origin. Europe currently leads with 61% of the predictions, trailed by Asia at 22% and Africa at 13%.

What’s particularly striking is the presence of more provocative, and often controversial, markets. Some users are betting on whether the new Pope will be Black, or even gay. While these categories have sparked backlash, especially on social media platforms, they remain active, lending Polymarket a reputation for courting controversy in pursuit of visibility.

Polymarket itself is no stranger to regulatory friction. The platform has previously clashed with U.S. authorities—most notably during the 2024 U.S. presidential race, where some viewed betting markets as potentially more reliable than traditional polling. Public figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump have voiced support for Polymarket, with both arguing that prediction markets offer a more “accurate picture of public opinion.”

Despite ongoing criticism and regulatory pushback, the platform remains operational. In France, for example, the National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has banned Polymarket, labeling it as a venue that promotes “politically and socially dangerous gambling.” Nevertheless, users continue to access the site from across Europe using VPNs and anonymous browsing tools, circumventing national restrictions.

Betting on papal succession isn’t a novel phenomenon. As far back as the 16th century, Roman nobles—and gamblers beyond Italy—were known to place bets on who would become the next Pope. Then, just as now, the selection of a pontiff rippled beyond the religious sphere, affecting diplomatic, political, and even economic dynamics.

Today’s version of this age-old speculation is amplified by modern technology, with bettors analyzing rumors, internal Vatican discussions, candidates’ profiles, and even predictive analytics drawn from the history of previous conclaves. The process now feels like a hybrid of ecclesiastical tradition and digital-age prediction, a strange fusion of sanctity and spectacle.

Ultimately, while the decision on the next Pope will be made behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, the world outside—through betting apps and browser tabs—will be watching, predicting, and wagering. Whether the markets will be right or caught off guard like they were in 2013 with the surprise election of Pope Francis remains to be seen. One thing, however, seems certain: the conclave won’t just happen in the Vatican. It’s unfolding on our screens—and that’s a bet worth placing.

By fLEXI tEAM