Macau’s Mass-Market Gambling Drives Q1 2025 Gaming Revenue, But Budget Concerns Loom

In the first quarter of 2025, Macau’s mass-market casino sector, which includes slot machine activity, generated gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP43.20 billion (US$5.40 billion), according to the latest figures released by the SAR Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. This represents a modest 0.6 percent increase compared to the same period last year and comprised around 74.9 percent of the city's total gaming revenue for the quarter.

Despite the year-on-year growth, the figure reflects a minor 0.5 percent decline when compared to the final quarter of 2024. Still, mass-market performance remains strong, with the current quarterly revenue coming in 10.9 percent higher than what was recorded in the first quarter of 2019, prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Of the total MOP57.66 billion (US$7.19 billion) in gaming revenue recorded in Q1 2025, over MOP34.32 billion (US$4.29 billion) came from mass-market baccarat alone, making up more than 59.5 percent of the overall GGR. Slot machine revenue contributed slightly more than MOP3.27 billion (US$405 million), equating to a market share of roughly 5.7 percent. While slot machine GGR grew 1.7 percent year-on-year, it registered a sequential decline of 2.9 percent compared to Q4 2024.

In the VIP segment, baccarat revenue increased by 0.5 percent from a year earlier, reaching close to MOP14.46 billion (US$1.80 billion). This accounted for 25.1 percent of the total quarterly GGR and showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3 percent. However, VIP baccarat revenue in Q1 2025 represented only 38.9 percent of the level seen in the same quarter of 2019, underscoring a continued shift in market dynamics.

The tepid revenue growth has raised fiscal red flags for the government. Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai recently voiced concern over the risk of a budget deficit if monthly gaming revenues fall below the MOP15 billion (US$1.88 billion) mark. “The imbalance in our fiscal structure is serious, and we must maintain a strong sense of crisis awareness. Macau is a small city, yet our regular expenditure is substantial—and it will continue to grow unless we face extreme circumstances,” he told the Legislative Assembly earlier this week.

Macau’s regular government spending for 2025 is projected to reach MOP115 billion (US$14.36 billion), while anticipated gaming tax revenues stand at MOP93.1 billion (US$11.59 billion), accounting for 81 percent of the region’s total income.

Although Q1 gaming revenue rose by 0.6 percent year-on-year, totaling MOP57.66 billion (US$7.19 billion)—or roughly MOP19.2 billion (US$2.39 billion) per month—it remains under the government’s full-year forecast. That target stands at MOP240 billion (US$29.76 billion), which translates to MOP20 billion (US$2.48 billion) per month, indicating a shortfall that could place additional pressure on the city’s fiscal stability in the coming quarters.

By fLEXI tEAM