Macau’s Gaming Revenue on Track for Strong November Performance Despite Weather and Event Challenges

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 17 days of November is estimated to have reached MOP10.1 billion ($1.26 billion), according to Bank of America’s latest weekly update. This translates to a daily run rate of approximately MOP594 million ($74.4 million). The period from November 11 to 17 recorded an even higher average daily revenue (ADR) of MOP630 million ($78.9 million), marking a notable increase from the MOP570 million ($71.4 million) ADR observed during the first ten days of the month.

The improved revenue figures come despite challenges posed by adverse weather, including typhoons, and the distractions caused by the Grand Prix, an event that traditionally diverts attention from the gaming sector. Recent weeks have seen multiple typhoons disrupting operations in Macau and surrounding regions, leading to temporary interruptions such as the suspension of ferry services and the closure of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge.

Even with these obstacles, November’s positive momentum indicates that Macau’s gaming sector is on track to meet Bank of America’s forecast of MOP18 billion ($2.25 billion) for the month. If achieved, this would represent a 12 percent year-on-year increase, supported by a comparatively low base from last year.

A closer analysis of the gaming revenue reveals mixed performance across various segments. VIP revenue declined by 12 to 14 percent month-on-month as win rates normalized following below-average levels during the first ten days of November. On the other hand, the mass-market segment experienced a 10 percent month-on-month decline, reflecting softer demand in this category.

Despite these fluctuations, the gaming sector in Macau continues to show promise and remains attractively valued. Bank of America expressed optimism regarding key operators in the market, singling out Galaxy Entertainment for its strong balance sheet and consistent market share. Additionally, Sands China is viewed as a potential leader in 2025, with expectations of improved margins following renovations at The Londoner Macao and the possible reinstatement of dividends.

In the third quarter of 2024, the Macau gaming sector recorded an 8 percent year-on-year growth in EBITDA, though it saw a 2 percent decline quarter-on-quarter. This QoQ dip was attributed to increased non-gaming expenditures and a persistently high reinvestment rate. However, operators noted that competitive intensity appeared to stabilize during the quarter.

SJM emerged as a standout performer in the third quarter, becoming the only operator to gain market share in terms of GGR. The company’s share of GGR rose by 1.4 percentage points to 14 percent, aided by favorable luck, enabling SJM to surpass Wynn Macau and secure the No. 5 position among operators. Meanwhile, Sands China continued to dominate with the largest share of EBITDA at 31 percent.

Although the sector faced quarterly setbacks, its overall EBITDA reflects resilience, with year-on-year growth underscoring the ongoing recovery and adaptation of Macau’s competitive gaming industry.

By fLEXI tEAM